Analysis of the Incidence of Mental Disorders among the Male Population of Tomsk Region over a 10-Year Period

Background: the mental health of the male population is a significant medical and social problem; however, the regional dynamics of the incidence of mental disorders among men remains insufficiently studied. The Aim was to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of primary and overall incidence of mental disorders (excluding disorders related to psychoactive substance use) among the male population of the Tomsk region over a 10-year period and to identify the main trends in the morbidity structure. Materials and Methods: a retrospective analysis of federal statistical observation data (Form No. 10) for 2015–2024 was performed. Indicators of primary and overall incidence per 100,000 male population were calculated for the main diagnostic groups: psychoses and dementia (PD), non-psychotic mental disorders (NPD), intellectual disability (ID), as well as for clinical categories (schizophrenia spectrum disorders, affective, neurotic, and organic disorders). Methods of time series analysis, growth rate calculation, and structural analysis were used. Results: primary incidence rates among the male population remained stable, showing a 1.5% decrease over 10 years (from 478,5 to 471,2 per 100,000). A peak in 2023 (628,3 per 100,000), driven by a sharp increase in non-psychotic (predominantly neurotic) disorders, was followed by a return to the average level in 2024. In contrast, overall incidence demonstrated a steady growth of 19,3% (from 3555,7 to 4242,2 per 100,000) with an average annual increase of 2.0%. The most significant increases were observed for affective (+ 133,6%) and neurotic (+ 148,5%) disorders. The proportion of psychoses increased in the structure of primary incidence, while no significant shifts occurred in the structure of overall incidence. Conclusions: the obtained data indicate a divergent dynamic: the stability of primary incidence is accompanied by an increase in cumulative (overall) incidence and pronounced differences in the dynamics of different nosologies, which necessitates considering when planning specialized care.

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