Modeling of the Indicator of Mental Disorders General Incidence of Adolescent Population of Russia in 1992–2022

Background: according to official statistics, the general incidence of mental disorders among adolescents during 1992–2022 was significantly higher than among the entire Russian population. This difference was already 82.4% in 2022. During 30 yars, the general incidence rate of adolescents increased by 48.4%, while the number of adolescent population decreased by 27.9%.

The aim was to find the main factors related to the dynamics of the indicator of the general incidence of mental disorders in the adolescent population of Russia and the construction of population mathematical models (linear and nonlinear) for this indicator based on data related to the period 1992–2022.

Material and Methods: the work used official data from statistical reports (Rosstat), materials from research institutions, and published results of epidemiological studies of the mental health of adolescents and the entire Russian population. When constructing linear models for the indicator of overall morbidity, correlation and regression analysis were used in the framework of MS Excel (the “Data Analysis” add-in), and the formation of a nonlinear model was carried out using a logistic function, the parameters of which were selected using the least squares method in the framework of MS Excel (the “Solver” add-in).

Results: using the correlation analysis of the initial data, the main factors influencing the dynamics of the overall incidence of mental disorders in the adolescent (15–17 years old) population of Russia in the period 1992–2022 were identified. The main factors for the period under review are: 1) the human resource of the adolescent mental health service; 2) the number of the adolescent population. Linear regression models with a high explanatory power have been obtained, which allow for operational monitoring of the overall morbidity of adolescents.

Conclusions: the results of study made it possible to develop epidemiological models with a high explanatory power (linear and nonlinear) to assess the indicator of the general incidence of mental disorders depending on the human resource of the adolescent psychiatric service and the number of adolescents. Using the obtained models it would be possible to monitor and predict the mental health of adolescents in both the short and medium term, as well as develop the necessary psychosocial assistance programs and plan appropriate resources for their implementation, which is important for the organizers of psychiatric care.

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